VUCA is the new black. We are continuously told we are living in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambigous world and as a result, our management and planning practices need to change. You could be mistaken for thinking this was a term that originated in business, but it wasn’t. Researchers have noted that the words were first used in the US Army War College in to describe the environment which resulted from the end of the Cold War, however, the acronym itself is believed to have been created in the late 1990s, and it was not until the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, that acronym really took hold. VUCA was subsequently adopted by strategic business leaders to describe the chaotic, turbulent, and rapidly changing business environment that has become the “new normal.”
As it was translated to the business world it took on a slightly different variant with many documents sighting the following:
- Volatile – Increasing rate of change
- Uncertain – Less clarity about the future
- Complex – Multiple decision factors
- Ambiguous – There may be more than one answer
The generally held view is that we are dealing in a world with increasing rates of change and a future that is less predictable. As leaders and managers we need to make faster decision surrounded by greater complexity and be expected to process vast and ever increasing amounts of ‘data’ simultaneously.
Whilst I could go on discussing the way in which VUCA concepts are impacting how we think about management and leadership, I actually want to focus on just one aspect. Comlexity. In my experience we seem to be blaming a lot of our management, leadership and business challenges on the ‘complexity’ of our challenges. Whilst this may be true we can, in fact, take hold of a lot of our challenges if we start understanding the different levels of complexity and how we can approach them.
One way to do this is to break challenges down into four categories of complexity being:
- Simple
- Complicated
- Complex
- Chaotic
All of the above will still require ‘multiple decision factors’ to be considered but some, but not all ‘decision factors’ are equal. By looking at our challenges through these four different lens, we will reduce the number of seemingly ‘complex’ challenges and improve our overall management approach and resulting stress levels.
Simple
A simple challenge is one with clear facts, ‘known knowns’ and a right answer. Examples of simple challenges could be changing a tyre, mowing lawns, creating invoices, updating a basic policy statement.
When it comes to these type of challenges it should be a fairly simple process of gathering the facts and creating a solution. We should be able to make easily informed decisions, categorise information, standardise a process, possibly even borrow a ‘best practice’ process form someone who has already worked it out.
These are the domain of system thinkers, best practice and rules.
Complicated
Further up the scale is a complicated challenge. One that still has facts, but there is missing information or you could say ‘known unknowns’. We know there is missing information, we know what it is, we just don’t have it. This is the domain of experts, those who have been there, done that, and have a level of knowledge that can fill in our blanks. Whilst complicated, we will be able to find a fairly straight forward, process oriented solution however, there could be more than one possible solution.
Examples of complicated challenges include building a car, creating an event, refurbishing an office, upgrading a computer system, creating a training program.
They are characterised by ‘someone has done this before’. When facing these type of challenges it can be helpful to set up a panel of experts, analyse the components, generate and listen to conflicting advice. Ultimately of course you will need to make a decision and commit to implementing your chosen solution.
These are the domain of project managers, subject matter experts and the concept of a defined solution.
Complex
Complex challenges pose a greater dilemma. Now we are getting into the realm of the ‘unordered’ and ‘unknown’. In fact, these challenges bring with them ‘unknown unknowns’ meaning we are unlikely to be aware that there are things we don’t know. They tend to bring with them patterns rather than facts, competing and emerging ideas and any number of possible solutions.
Examples could include designing a new car, new building, new computer system, new product, new service, an organisational restructure.
When facing these challenges useful strategies can include probing, researching, generating ideas, experiments (fail fast), increasing interactions and communication with key stakeholders, encouraging dissent, diversity and conflict in search of a preferred solution. It was these type of challenges that gave rise to the ‘agile’ movement – agile thinking, agile leadership, agile project management, agile decision making and a whole lot more. Whilst concepts of agility are an important consideration, it should be noted that simply adopting an ‘agile’ methodology is unlikely to solve your challenge. In fact, in many cases it has made things worse.
These are the domain of experienced and strategic project managers, and the concept of an emerging solution.
Chaotic
Chaotic challenges are at the top of the tree. These are even more unordered than complex challenges. They may be characterised by unknowables, high turbulence, no right answer, life or death decisions and no or little time to think.
Example could include responding to a fire, responding to a major and unpredictable change in the in the external or internal environment, responding to an earth quake.
When facing these challenges useful strategies can sometime be counter intuitive and include taking control, establishing order, looking for what works now, deciding and acting. Chaotic challenges, once dealt with, will often fall back into a complex challenge requiring a longer term perspective and solution.
Chaotic challenges are the domain of those that can make things happen in a quick and definite way, often lead by seasoned experienced executives capable of quickly interpreting and distilling large and competing amounts of data. These challenges bring with them the concept of ‘he who hesitates is lost’.
